The Petalumahomes.com Realty WebLog

I GUESS WE ALL LIKE TO BE RECOGNIZED NOT FOR ONE PIECE OF FIREWORKS, BUT FOR THE LEDGER OF OUR DAILY WORK.” Neil Armstrong. And while the summer’s fireworks started in full force on the July 4th holiday, they continued daily last week in the financial markets as Bonds and home loan rates ignited and began the week by improving sharply. This early-week rally was sparked by a speech made by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said that the Fed may continue to provide emergency loans to investment banks to help them overcome credit problems. This led to improvement in the Bond market because the markets saw this as a sign that the Fed is willing to take action to maintain stability and counter any turbulence or explosions that may occur.

We could be in for another explosive week, as several reports will show the impact inflation continues to have on the economy. Tuesday will bring the wholesale inflation measuring Producer Price Index as well as the Retail Sales Report, which measures the total receipts of retail stores. Since these numbers reflect consumer spending patterns, this report will show how much of an impact inflation and high oil prices are having on consumer pocketbooks.On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index report will be released, and this widely-watched report will reveal the level of inflation at the consumer level since it shows how much more expensive goods and services are this month over last month. Also, on Wednesday, we’ll get to see the minutes of the Fed’s last Federal Open Market Committee meeting. These minutes could cause some sizzle in the markets especially if they give any indication of what the Fed will do about its benchmark rate, the Fed Funds Rate, at the next meeting.Thursday we will see a read on the housing market via the Housing Starts and Building Permits Report. We’ll also learn how much of an impact inflation has had on manufacturing via the Philadelphia Fed Report, which is a monthly survey of manufacturing purchasing managers conducting business around the tri-state area of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware.Remember when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower…and vice versa. The chart below shows how the rally for Bonds and home loan rates fizzled late last week. And since inflation also tends to stop rallies for both Stocks and Bonds, I’ll be watching closely as always. If this week’s reports indicate inflation is heating up, this could cause Bond pricing and home loan rates to worsen in response.

FORECAST FOR THE WEEK

And speaking of explosions, some explosions in the Middle East helped douse the rallying flames mid-week after Iran test fired nine medium- to long-range missiles, one of which has the range to reach Israel. The instability of that situation…and new testimony by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke before the House Financial Services Committee regarding ways Congress can overhaul the financial regulatory system to prevent future crises (the first hearing of its kind)…caused the improvements in the market to fizzle as Traders watched and waited for the finale these events would cause.As it turned out, last week’s finale was a bit of an implosion. Despite Paulson’s encouraging words about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Bonds and home loan rates worsened after reports on Friday that the government is considering a plan to take control of both companies if financial problems threaten their collapse. Stock prices of Fannie and Freddie would essentially become worthless if this happens, and Stocks and Bonds both reacted poorly to this news as investor confidence plunged.Also, another record high for oil (remember higher oil prices means higher inflation, which is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates) added to the implosion and worsening of Bonds and home loan rates on Friday. However, when all the smoke cleared, Bonds and home loan rates still managed to end the week slightly better than where they began.

VERY NICE. IT’S A LITTLE GREASY…BUT VERY NICE. CRUMBLE SOME CRACKERS INTO IT SHELL, THAT WILL HELP TO ABSORB THE GREASE…” Peter Falk’s line from the 1979 classic movie “The In-Laws” is good advice about soup…but doesn’t help us much when it comes to absorbing the high price of oil, a greasy topic that continues to permeate financial headlines.And last week was no exception, with oil prices continuing to march ever higher, despite an announcement early last week by OPEC member Saudi Arabia that they will increase oil production in the near future. They are concerned that the high price of oil will lead to lower demand and a turn toward alternative energy sources. And Friday’s news didn’t help, with a strike at a Chevron plant in war-torn Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producing nation. Additionally, Israel conducted a military operation for preparedness in case of a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear plants – which all served to push oil prices higher still. High oil prices are inflationary – so if the march higher in oil prices continues, both the Stock and Bond markets will suffer…and even crumbled crackers won’t help sop up the mess.But Bonds did manage to find some improvement last week, helping home loan rates get better by about .125%. Negative economic news, including soft housing numbers, weakness from the manufacturing sector and more write-downs announced by financial giant Citigroup all played a hand – causing money to flow out of Stocks and over into Bonds, which helped prices improve.Forecast For The Week

The coming week is chock full of economic reports that will likely have a big influence on the financial markets. We start off on Tuesday with a report on Consumer Confidence, and also the beginning of Fed meetings which will culminate in a Rate Decision and Policy Statement on Wednesday afternoon at 2:15pm ET. It is widely believed that the Fed will keep the Fed Funds Rate at 2%…but what will be most interesting is the wording of their carefully crafted Policy Statement. If it gives hints of their intent to hike rates in the near future to help fight inflation, it could actually be good news for Bonds and home loan rates.A look at sales numbers in the new and existing housing markets will come Wednesday and Thursday, and Friday will wrap up the week with a bang as the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, the Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) data will be released. Since this will be following the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday – will the Fed look smart if they’ve held rates steady, or perhaps come under criticism if the inflation numbers are super-heated? Could be a greasy few days for the Fed, so stay tuned.Remember that when Bond pricing moves higher, home loan rates move lower – and then take a look at the chart below. You can see how in recent days, Bonds have moved higher, but are now battling an overhead “ceiling” of technical resistance. If Bonds and home loan rates are to improve in the near future, it will take some very Bond-friendly news to help crash through the ceiling that has stopped progress in its tracks for the time being

“OPINION HAS CAUSED MORE TROUBLE ON THIS LITTLE EARTH THAN PLAGUES OR EARTHQUAKES.” ~ Voltaire. Opinions certainly caused some trouble in the markets last week as several Fed members talked about inflation, the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates, and their comments shook the markets like a high-magnitude quake.Last week began with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggesting that the Fed is in no hurry to hike rates because of “slack” in the economy. Bonds traded lower on this news, and this may be because many economists disagree with Bernanke and believe a rate hike would actually help strengthen the US Dollar, drop oil prices closer to $100 per barrel, ease inflation pressure and…as a result, help Bonds and home loan rates improve.Also chiming in last week was Philadelphia Fed President Charlie Plosser, who said the Fed has to take “appropriate steps to do something about” inflation. His remarks helped fan the flames of volatility for Bonds and home loan rates, adding to the sell off in Bonds and worsening of home loan rates.There was some good economic news last week, but remember good economic news often causes money to flow from Bonds into Stocks, and when Bonds trade lower, home loan rates rise. And that’s exactly what happened when April’s Pending Home Sales report (which measures signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops) and May’s Retail Sales Report both came in much better than expected.On Friday, the important read on consumer inflation via the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report delivered a mixed bag. Overall inflation is up 4.2% on a year-over-year basis, which is the highest it’s been in awhile. This comes as no surprise, when taking into consideration how much the prices of fuel and food have both risen. But the Core Rate of inflation, which strips out both food and energy, increased at a much more reasonable rate of 2.3%. Since Core CPI is seen by most economists as the best measure of the underlying inflation rate, this was really good news. However, Stocks rallied after former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan chimed in with his opinion that the worst of the credit crisis is over, and this halted any improvement for Bonds and home loan rates.

According to recent statistics released by the U.S. Department of Justice, about 1.6 million households experience theft of existing accounts other than a credit card (such as a banking account), and 1.1 million households discover misuse of personal information (such as their social security number) annually. In addition, a recent poll revealed that “sixteen percent of adults say they have had their credit or debit card used by someone they don’t know without their permission” and that “substantial numbers” of people have taken specific steps to help prevent identity theft from happening to them.

Here are some important tips for keeping your information safe and sound:

Give it to me in writing. While many of us have limited our exposure to telemarketing calls by utilizing the Do-Not-Call registry, charities are exempt from the Do-Not-Call rules. If you receive a phone call from any charity, ask the caller to send you information in the mail instead of giving out your credit card information over the phone. If you get any resistance, just hang up. If someone isn’t willing to give you the chance to review some information, they could be interested in more than earning a commission.

Just the facts. We often give unnecessary information like our date of birth and income level when we’re filling out things like warranty cards for new products we’ve bought or supermarket club cards. Share only what’s really necessary in every situation.

Navigating the Net. Never post your address or your full date of birth on any social networking sites because both are pieces of information needed to steal your identity. In addition, if you utilize internet job sites, never give a potential employer your Social Security number until they are ready to hire you. Also, thoroughly investigate companies before you submit your resume and check the privacy policies of any online job boards to make sure they won’t sell your information.

The world of paper. Even though the Internet has added a whole new dimension to identity theft, there are still important steps to take when it comes to paper items. First, never keep your Social Security number in your wallet, glove compartment, and other easy-to-access places. Also, never have it printed on your checks or use it as your password. Second, when you are ready to get rid of old documents that contain important information, shred them. And last, if you have to mail something that contains sensitive information, drop the letter in a secure mailbox instead of a mailbox that anyone can open (like the kind at the end of many people’s driveways).

The bottom line is this: When it comes to your personal information, share it on a need-to-know basis only!

If you’ve noticed your grocery bill getting bigger lately, you’re not alone - and it’s likely not because you’re eating more. According to Rising Food Prices: Policy Options and World Bank Response, global wheat prices have increased a whopping 181% over the past three years - and overall, food prices have increased by 83%!

Concerned? You’re not alone. A recent poll showed that 73% of consumers cite higher grocery bills as a concern; with nearly half saying food inflation has caused a hardship for their households. In fact, food prices ranked just below record-high gasoline prices on the list of things people are worried about.

According to Gregory Karp, author of Living Rich by Spending Smart, here are three simple ways you can save when it comes to food and drink prices:

Time your grocery shopping. With the exception of milk, eggs, and bread, most grocery store products are put on sale at least once every 12 weeks, as Karp notes, often for “20%-30% their usual price.” So instead of buying what you need every week or two, stock up on non-perishables when they go on sale. It may take a little planning ahead on your part, but the annual savings is substantial. As Karp writes, “The average American family of four spends about $8,500 on groceries each year. Trimming that bill by 20% saves $1,700.”

Make eating out a special treat. Enjoying a nice meal out is always a fun thing to do, so let it be just that, a fun thing to do rather than a solution for being too tired or too rushed to cook. When you do have the time and energy to cook, make two or three times the amount and freeze the extras. Then, when you’re rushed, a home-cooked (and probably healthier) meal will be waiting in your freezer, and will likely take less time to reheat than a night out or take-out delivery. And you will save more than time: According to Karp, “A restaurant meal for two costs $30 even at inexpensive chain restaurants. Home-cooked meals typically cost half as much, if not less. Convert two restaurant trips into two frozen homemade dinners each month, and you will save $360 per year.”

Don’t buy bottled water. Believe it or not, recent tests have shown that bottled water and tap water are pretty equal when it comes to safety and taste. For example, ABC News tested New York City tap water and bottled water for bacteria and found no difference in purity. Plus, there are environmental benefits of using less plastic. Karp estimates that people who drink one $6 case of bottled water each week can save $311 per year if they stop buying bottled water. He notes that “tap water costs five cents per gallon, or less than two cents per equivalent case - about $1 for the year.”

Hey, if you eat…rising food prices impact you. Use the above tips and suggestions to help minimize your concerns about rising food prices, and stay healthy and smart.